The cava sector is preparing to break a new historical sales record this year. The goal is to exceed 250 million bottles sold, a figure that the Cava Regulatory Council sees as totally feasible due to both the good expectations for the Christmas campaign and the data recorded during the first three quarters of the year. Thus, between January and September, 170 million bottles have been sold, a 2.35% increase. This is a smaller increase than the 3.36% recorded during the same period in 2022.
As happened last year, it is the domestic market that is currently driving cava's growth, although, in terms of total volume, exports continue to be decisive, as they generate 70% of sales. According to the president of the DO Cava, Javier Pagés, on Wednesday, sales in the Spanish market grew by 7.65% until September, mainly driven by the good performance of the restaurant sector and also by the boost in tourism. On the contrary, the export market has remained flat, with an increase of 0.33%.
"The Spanish economy stands out within the European Union in terms of GDP growth; we are above other major economies, and that clearly influences this 7.65% increase in cava sales," explains Pagés. In 2022, the domestic market had soared by 14.5% until the third quarter, and exports had also stagnated. "The acceptance of cava worldwide is impressive. We are present in 150 countries and are the Spanish DO that exports the most, 70% of our production," the president of the Regulatory Council recalled to downplay the slowdown in growth in the international market.
Germany remains cava's main client, with an increase of 1.27% until September. In second place is Belgium (+1.95%), and in third position the United Kingdom, where sales have advanced by 19.33% after decreasing in the same period of 2022. Pagés attributes this strong recovery in the British market to the fact that cava "is doing well" in that market and to a technical issue related to "stock regulation," in the sense that they had decreased significantly and now customers have refilled their warehouses.
Other countries with significant sales increases until September include Brazil (+76%), Poland (+33%), France (+17%), the Netherlands (+11%), and Sweden (+6%).
According to Pagés, if "no debacle" occurs and the Christmas campaign is positive, cava could end the year with growth of between 3% and 4%, reaching sales of more than 250 million bottles, although he has defended that the objective of the Regulatory Council is no longer so much to grow in volume but in value. "Cava is interested in volume, because there are many consumer profiles, but now the most important thing is to work on value," he said, after recalling the new segmentation that distinguishes between 'guarda' cavas and 'guarda superior' cavas (more than 18 months of aging and made with organic grapes from vineyards more than ten years old).
Drought will increase prices
In this sense, he predicts that the average price of a bottle of cava (which in 2022 stood at 10 euros) will rise in the coming years due to the desire to bet on higher ranges, but also due to the effect of the drought, which has reduced grape production for cava and, consequently, decreased the stocks that are in the aging phase in the wineries. Specifically, in the last harvest, 20% fewer kilos were collected. Given this situation, it is likely that in 2024 and 2025 the production records achieved in recent years, including this 2023, cannot be broken.
In 2022, the sector marketed 249 million bottles, a figure that represented an increase of 4.58% compared to 2021, above the 3% forecast made before the Christmas campaign. This figure corresponds to the bottles actually marketed by the wineries, although if the stocks about to be released that the companies had at the end of the year —bottles already certified and with the seal of the Regulatory Council— are also added, the total number of units produced (shipments) amounted to 254 million, an increase of 0.69%. This volume is the highest in the historical series, as it surpasses the record of 2021 (252.9 million bottles) and that of 2017 (252 million).