China in the era of the African dragon

[dropcap letter="L"]ouis Fenaux has a passion for the sea. A Belgian of Flemish roots, a decade ago he abandoned Old Europe to settle in Hentiesbaai, a town in the heart of the Skeleton Coast, the mecca of fishing in Namibia. There he runs a small guesthouse and goes out early every morning with his rod to fish for sharks or steenbras from the beach. When it is still dark, and if the day dawns clear, he can make out on the horizon the lights of Spanish, American or Chinese fishing boats that operate in the cold international waters off the coast. Fenaux is concerned about the Chinese fishing boats and, while his wife Anneke cooks us a delicious red fish and carrot sauce, his tongue loosens. "The Chinese, huh? They are already everywhere in the country," he says. On the border with Angola in the north, it is common to see Chinese businesses in any small town, and at Windhoek airport, the presence of slit-eyed executives is already a routine. Fenaux is not too amused. "Some friends in the north are worried because a Chinese company wants to build a uranium mine on the outskirts of their city. If they do, they will bring their Chinese employees, their Chinese supermarkets, products and restaurants and the whole city, as it is now, will disappear and Namibians will lose their jobs," he says. But the fear of Fenaux and his colleagues is unfounded. Although most of the 2,500 Chinese companies currently operating in Africa bring their own Chinese workers and only employ locals in the toughest tasks, they do not absorb or change the physiognomy of entire towns. The impact is not local, it is continental. With 3,000 kilometers of roads and 2,000 of railway line built, in addition to bridges, dams, oil pipelines and ports, China is changing the face of the entire African continent. Sino-African trade relations have just closed the most splendid decade in history. If in 2000 economic exchanges between the two did not reach 10 billion dollars, last year they exceeded 215 billion. The escalation is unstoppable and is leaving competitors behind: since 2009, China has been the continent's leading trading partner, ahead of the United States.

Most of the 2,500 companies currently operating in Africa bring their own Chinese workers and only employ locals in the toughest tasks (...) The impact is not local, it is continental

When the coffees arrive, Fenaux points out one of the factors that have led to this take-off. "At first, Chinese products or roads were of poor quality; but that is no longer the case; those guys know how to do things well when they want to, they certainly do...". To understand China's presence on the black continent, a bidirectional reading is essential. It is not China in Africa. It is China and Africa. Although it is undeniable that African natural resources are the fuel the Asian giant needs to function —approximately 80% of its imports from Africa are oil and minerals—, China saw before anyone else that the continent is not only a large expanse of fertile lands and a rich subsoil, but also a market opportunity. According to economist and development expert Vijay Mahajan, the absence of prejudices regarding an African society not as impoverished and immobile as it might seem has given the Asian giant an advantage. "China has noticed —says Mahajan— that there is a consumer class of about 400 million people in Africa eager for products and services. Cheap, yes, but the market is huge." The African Development Bank (AfDB) places the number of Africans with the capacity to have between 2 and 20 dollars daily at 350 million. Although 60% of this incipient African middle class only spends between 2 and 4 dollars daily, China has embraced this humble purchasing margin that goes beyond spending on food for survival: its main imports are vehicles, clothing, machinery, footwear, and plastic materials. From Angola to Senegal, passing through Mozambique or South Sudan, the "Made in China" of counterfeit football shirts and shoes or Chinese letters on vans, motorcycles, or SUVs are a constant. The best news for China is that this is the market that will grow the most in the world. The demographic revolution in Africa has barely begun: if the continent has just surpassed one billion inhabitants, the United Nations estimates that this figure will have doubled by 2050. And the demographic bomb will not stop: by the end of the century there will be 3 billion Africans, more than the current population of China and India combined. Among these numbers could be Beijing's next master move. If to the demographic explosion we add the youth factor —almost half by Xavier Aldekoa 20 NEW CYCLE OF AFRICA of Africans are under 15 today—, a future with hundreds of millions of young people of working age is approaching. For British economist and Oxford professor Paul Collier, China could direct its sights of economic expansion towards them. "If we add increasingly high production costs in China to the great business opportunities in Africa, I believe that, within ten years, China will relocate some of its companies to the continent to reduce costs. If this happens, the change will be spectacular," he maintains. Spectacular," he maintains. But there is no need to travel to the future. Theskylinefrom Luanda, capital of Angola, spurred by several dozen cranes, indicates that Sino-African business is booming. Angola is the paradigm of the tone of commercial relations: China imports more oil from Angola, its first African partner, than from any other country in the world and, in return, stays out of internal political issues, navigates comfortably in a sea of opaque contracts and Chinese laborers who change the face of the country with skyscrapers and asphalt roads. Another of China's major partners, South Sudan, a country the size of France with only 90 kilometers of paved roads and full of oil, is perhaps the greatest example of the continent's need for infrastructure.

"If we add increasingly high production costs in China to the great business opportunities in Africa, (...) China will relocate some of its companies to the continent to reduce costs. If this happens, the change will be spectacular"

The South African president Jacob Zuma last year put figures to Africa's business opportunities and offered to act as a gateway to the continent, as Singapore did in the seventies and eighties in Asia. He said this at a BRIC summit, a group formed by the main emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China, in addition to South Africa. "In the next ten years, Africa will need 480 billion dollars for infrastructure development, which should interest the BRIC." From Brasilia, Moscow, New Delhi and Beijing they took good note. China, which represents 65% of total African imports among the BRIC, will continue to lead the group. There is nothing improvised about the Chinese presence in Africa. The creation of twenty-one special economic zones (SEZ) in African countries is a firm commitment to strengthen trade ties and contribute to the industrialization of the continent. In the SEZ zones, with world-class infrastructure, administrative facilities and tax incentives are offered for Chinese companies to sell their products and be competitive on African soil. And it remains to be seen what the result of the latest collateral effect of the era of the African dragon will be: the human one. The decade of greatest commercial expansion between China and Africa has led more than a million Chinese to settle on African soil. Most return home when their contracts end, but thousands have decided to stay and invest their savings in a new life in Africa. And since some will succeed, a call effect is likely to occur. If it happens, we will be on the verge of the first great generation of Chinese born in Africa. A few weeks ago, the death of the president of Zambia, Michael Sata, brought the vice president to provisional power, born in Livingstone but of Scottish father, and who became the first white president in an African country since independence, with permission from Madagascar. Perhaps there is less left to see an African president with pale skin and slanted eyes.