At a time of transformation and rebalancing of forces on a global scale, Europe must become strong economically and in the field of defense, while establishing itself as a stable international actor, with the will to convert uncertainty into an opportunity: "In a moment of volatility, the EU presents itself to the world as a reliable and predictable partner, committed to all its allies and to its international agreements," claimed the President of the European Council, António Costa, at an annual meeting of the Cercle d'Economia marked by tariffs imposed by the United States.
To do so, Europe requires the collaboration of regions like Catalonia, "for its Europeanism and for its economic leadership." And it is that Catalonia "brings together assets such as a strong industrial base, a solid innovative environment, and a vibrant and pro-European society." These ingredients form a "unique combination that Catalonia offers to Spain and to Europe on the path towards European competitiveness," he highlighted in a debate moderated by the board member of the Cercle and director of Cidob, Pol Morilla.
In this sense, the former Portuguese prime minister also celebrated that "Catalonia has once again actively contributed to the growth of Spain," something he believes has become evident with the return of the headquarters of large companies that moved their headquarters to other territories due to the independence process. Thus, he applauded Catalonia's "new impulse of stability and confidence," at a moment of historical inflection and international uncertainty, due to the war in Ukraine and the direction of United States policies.
"Perhaps the EU is a bit like the Sagrada Família: an enormous, crazy project, in some ways perpetually unfinished""Tariffs have returned not only as a tool of industrial policy, but as geopolitical weapons,"has highlighted Costa before a Palau de Congressos de Catalunya full of representatives from the economic, political, and business spheres, including the mayor of Barcelona, Jaume Collboni, and the president of the Parliament, Josep Rull. Faced with Donald Trump's policies, Costa has advocated for a unitary response based on dialogue, but avoiding naivety: "When necessary, the EU will act to protect its interests."
And the fact is that tariffs "economically weaken everyone," which is why they are contradictory to other United States objectives, including Europe increasing its defense budget. In this sense, the impact of tariffs on exports will amount to 1,055 million euros in Catalonia, according to calculations by the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce. "If we have to assume more responsibilities in defense, we need to strengthen our economy, not weaken it," and tariffs go in the opposite direction, according to Costa: "This makes no sense."
Precisely, defense and competitiveness are the two priorities that Europe sets for itself and, to move them forward, the EU must "reinvent" its budgets to increase its own resources. To do this, Costa has opened the door to a new debt issuance, but "it can only be done if we first resolve how we pay the debt we have already issued; otherwise, it would not be responsible." In fact, the item to repair the debt could represent 20% of the annual European budgets.
In this moment of international instability, Europe also looks towards China, with which it wants to "build a mutually beneficial and balanced relationship" that develops on an "adequate" playing field. Europe places this gaze on China without taking it away from the EU itself: "We must also focus on what we can do ourselves internally, to give new impetus to the internal market." With one priority: reducing bureaucracy.
Jaume Guardiola warns that "the poor quality of public debate" generates disaffection and feeds the extremesIn this sense, Europe has overcome the crises of recent years "to emerge stronger and more resilient, and it will do so again," Costa guaranteed. "Perhaps the EU is a bit like the Sagrada Família, an enormous, crazy, idealistic project, of historical dimensions and with beautiful and complex architecture, somehow perpetually unfinished and to which each generation contributes its grain of sand."A project that, although "sometimes it stagnates, advances with determination, guided by a bold and ambitious vision of the future."
Facing the blackout, more interconnection
Costa has advocated for strengthening Europe and its integration in all areas, including electrical interconnection, "because that will reduce the risk of incidents and blackouts like last week's". In this regard, the EU is "paving the way for more public investments, but we also need more private investments, to invest in innovation, productivity, and competitiveness" in this area.
The president of the Cercle d'Economia, Jaume Guardiola, also referred to the blackout, criticizing the response from the political sphere: "Instead of leaving space for technical debate, there has been a polarization of the debate by all parties, with an ideological basis". When opening a dialogue with the president of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, Guardiola called for constructive discussions in this and other areas, such as the reform of the autonomous community financing system that the Cercle is requesting. This is because "the poor quality of public debate" generates disaffection and feeds the extremes, according to the former CEO of Banc Sabadell.
The vision of Francisco Blanch and Pablo Hernández de Cos
To prevent an episode like the blackout from recurring, Bank of America executive Francisco Blanch has proposed that Europe reorganize its energy system and also invest in energy storage systems: "Europe's energy Achilles' heel is storage." Furthermore, he warned that eliminating energy purchases from Russia implies a punishment for Moscow but also "self-punishment for Europe," due to the increased cost it may entail, he said in a debate moderated by economist and IESE professor Núria Mas.
"Rearming the EU requires a lot of energy and a lot of metal," Blanch remarked, in a context where obtaining raw materials is also complicated by US tariffs, but not only that. The equation affecting international trade also includes elements such as the tax cuts that the Trump administration wants to establish and the reduction of public spending, among many other factors, as recalled by the former governor of the Bank of Spain and next director of the Bank for International Settlements, Pablo Hernández de Cos: "When all this is put into a cocktail shaker, it is difficult to know what might happen with economic growth."
Thus, "the context of uncertainty goes beyond tariff rates," so venturing predictions is too daring, except for one: inflation will increase, according to Hernández de Cos. "One way to respond is with greater European integration, and the margin to increase intra-European trade remains extensive," he added. This European response, according to him, must be combined with national policies of the member states, and with measures by companies to "increase their degree of resilience." In this recipe, Hernández de Cos adds one more factor: the possibility that the euro could become a reserve currency, although he sees it as unlikely that the dollar will cease to be one.
Leading the international democratic bloc
In this context of international instability, strengthening Europe is a priority not only for itself, as "the world is looking to Europe to lead democracy in the rest of the world," said the former Minister of Finance of Chile and Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics, Andrés Velasco.
"The world needs a leader of liberal democratic politics, and the United States has renounced that role," Velasco added. The director and founder of the Center on Contemporary China at the University of Hong Kong, Li Cheng, went further, stating that American society is "sick." Thus, Trump "is a symptom, and not the cause," of economic disparities, racial tensions, and a cultural war, according to the professor, who has lived more than three decades in the United States: "These problems will remain with or without Donald Trump."
The diplomat and Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs of the United States between 2001 and 2009, Paula Dobriansky, replied that American society "is not sick; this is democracy." In this sense, she claimed that Trump was democratically elected. "There is one issue on which Republicans, Democrats, and independents agree, and that is that China is not playing fair," Dobriansky asserted in a Cercle meeting that has staged the global tensions between the blocs that are being drawn in the search for a new balance.
The annual meeting of the Cercle accumulates 40 editions seeking to serve as a space for encounter, debate, and proposals on the challenges of the moment. The first edition was born in 1961, when it brought together members of the entity and high-ranking state administration technicians who, with the subsequent establishment of democracy, held high political responsibilities. The first meeting led to meetings every three years, which later became annual.
To commemorate these 40 editions of the meeting, the Cercle has gathered the top brass of the entity and of the political and economic sphere, including the presidents of the entity and the Minister of Economy, Alícia Romero. The event, with a surprise orchestral finale, reviewed the institution's trajectory with fragments from an Incís.tv documentary that delves into its history. The meeting has also become a tribute to Joan Mas Cantí, founder in 1958 of an institution that, more than six decades later, continues to set the agenda in the face of society's challenges.