Barcelona's retail trade is not overly optimistic about the Three Kings' campaign because the new wave of the pandemic and recent restrictions of 70% capacity in establishments have held back consumers, although stores have registered more demand as the January 6th date has approached. However, the decline in sales could be around 4.7% compared to levels recorded in 2019, the year before the pandemic, according to data from the employers' association Comertia, which groups 4,000 establishments from 61 retail chains, with more than a hundred brands created by family businesses.
However, merchants expect to recover sales during the sales period, with a forecast increase of 9.8%. "The campaign can be more favorable because everyone is becoming aware that it is possible to live with the omicron variant and that establishments are safe areas, and people show a significant degree of responsibility, as they stagger their purchases and significant crowds are not caused," says David Sánchez, president of Comertia.
Given the situation generated, many companies have opted to offer continuous discounts, some of which already started during Black Friday, which, "while in other years it was a weekend or three-day campaign, this year many brands have extended it up to three weeks," states Sánchez. "There are companies that, with contained demand, have preferred to get rid of stocked and paid merchandise, especially if we consider that we have had two very tough years for retail trade," he adds.
In the same vein, the vice president of the Fundació Barcelona Comerç, Pròsper Puig, warns that currently the sales campaign is distorted because since the end of November, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday, many retail chains apply constant discounts.
"Another thing is neighborhood commerce, which really maintains the sales campaign starting on January 7th, a date that historically was one of the highest-selling," explains Puig. He emphasizes that establishments in Barcelona's neighborhoods do carry out the campaign correctly, as they apply discounts of between 20% and 30% on the original price of items and, perhaps in a second round of sales, reach 50% for certain products.
"But we should all question whether the discounts we find of up to 70% in other types of stores are really sales to eliminate stock from the previous season, which is the purpose of the campaign, or if they are products that have previously been sold above their price, because applying a 70% discount on an item means selling at a loss and that is prohibited by law," states the vice president of the Fundació Barcelona Comerç.
2021, a year still subject to the pandemic
Sales will reach retail after closing 2021 and the Christmas campaign with a very "irregular" evolution, subject to the impact of the various waves of coronavirus, according to all sources consulted. Sánchez confirms that in the months when the virus is more controlled, the situation recovers and, at times, approaches pre-pandemic data.
Meanwhile, given the uncertainty of what will happen in the coming months, the president of the Retailcat association, Joan Carles Calbet, recently pointed out that the definitive recovery could occur in the second half of 2022.
Sales will reach retail after closing 2021 and the Christmas campaign with a very irregular evolutionLast December, despite the increase in infections and current restrictions, Comertia's sales indicator maintained positive sales, with a growth of 5.3% compared to the same month in 2019, because many consumers advanced their purchases to the beginning of the monthThe sectors most favored by demand were basic food (20.7%), personal accessories (10%), household products (9%) and leisure and culture (6%).
In December, a drop was noted in sectors more affected by restrictions, such as restaurants, which fell by 2.8%, and fashion, by 0.3%. The president of Comertia demands that the application of capacity limitation measures be accompanied by direct aid from administrations, "because some establishments cannot subsist without activity," especially in restaurants, he highlights.
Less capacity, more e-commerce
Capacity restrictions in commercial establishments ---which the Government has extended until the end of January--- will fully affect the sales campaign. Therefore, there are reasons to think that online shopping will also be another option for consumers. In the case of companies associated with Comertia, last December, online sales registered an average increase of 115.6%, representing 7.2% of total turnover. The fashion sector (9.6%) continues to lead online sales, followed by restaurants (9.1%), leisure and culture (9.1%), personal accessories (3.5%), food (3.4%), automotive and services (4%) and, finally, household products (3.1%).
For this reason and as has already happened in the last two years, the evolution of the labor market in the retail sector during the sales campaign ---specifically in January and February--- will be marked by new hires concentrated in e-commerce and not so much in physical stores, which are more affected by capacity restrictions and users' preferences to avoid crowds.
Online sales grew by an average of 115.6% last December, reaching 7.2% of total turnoverAccording to Adecco data, the sales campaign will generate up to 28,129 new employment contracts in Catalonia, a figure that represents an increase of 9.6% compared to the same period in 2021.The Barcelona demarcation will be the one that creates the most jobs, with 21,150 contracts, 10% more than in the 2020 campaign, in areas such as distribution, theretail, logistics and transport.
For this beginning of the year, companies are demanding professional profiles linked to the tasks of preparing and distributing shipments through e-commerce, such as packers, warehouse assistants and personnel destined for the last mile. There is also demand for sales assistants, promoters, sales representatives, teleoperators and hostesses.
The human resources company reminds that, as happened with Christmas, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the sectors that will benefit most are mass consumption ---such as perfumery, cosmetics, toy stores, electronics or telephony--- and the areas of customer service or sales force.