In the last three years, once the pandemic slump was overcome, the main economists and business and research entities in the country have warned in their reports of evidence in the key macroeconomic indicators: productivity growth in the last decade had practically stagnated, both in Catalonia and in Spain, a fact that distanced us from the evolution of the main European economies. And this is not minor: productivity is closely linked to a country's per capita income and, ultimately, to the level of well-being of its population.
In fact, the general director of the Cercle d'Economia, Miquel Nadal, exemplified its impact on the economy thus, a few days before the entity's annual meeting: "The higher a country's productivity level, the higher its income, the fewer hours worked, the better the income distribution, and the lower relative poverty."
Throughout this year, various proposals have emerged to reverse this negative trend, such as the Initiative for Productivity and Innovation of the Cercle d'Economia or the Plan for Productivity and Competitiveness of Foment del Treball. Among the best-known recipes are increased productive investment and investment in research and development.
Although the results of these initiatives cannot yet be reflected in the indicator, the tone of the discourse is beginning to change for many economists, who observe "an upward turning point in productivity, a pending task for the Catalan economy". This was announced this Tuesday by the head of the Economic Studies Cabinet of the Cambra de Comerç de Barcelona, Joan Ramon Rovira, during the presentation of his quarterly report on the Catalan economic situation. The figures indicate that productivity has recovered 2019 levels, prior to the pandemic, and is beginning to enter "the virtuous circle of the economy."
The concept of a virtuous circle explains that "we are entering a growth phase in which positive factors feed off each other," Rovira stated. That is, good employment performance has boosted private consumption and investment (both productive and in construction) and this, together with the resilience of exports, has led to economic growth and, again, better employment performance. In turn, it has also caused, as we said, a change in the trend of productivity.
With this virtuous circle, the Cambra has revised its GDP growth forecasts upwards, increasing its estimate for 2025 by three tenths (2.9%) and maintaining that for 2026 at 2.4%. This is an optimistic revision when compared to the estimates of the Govern (2.5%) or BBVA Research (2.6%).
Within this "moderate optimism," the entity wanted to highlight two possible alerts. The first, exogenous: the risk posed by the full impact of United States tariffs. Although the US only represents 3-4% of our exports, France, Germany, and Italy are large exporting economies to the US, so a slowdown there could indirectly affect us. Even so, Josep Santacreu, president of the Cambra, celebrated "the good diversification of markets for our exports and the new international destinations we are reaching."
The second alert? This one is endogenous, and more worrying: labor absenteeism. In fact, the latest report on labor absenteeism from Randstad Research places Spain in the worst position in the European Union: it is the country with the most labor absenteeism.
The wrench in the gears of productivity: labor absenteeism
The productivity of an economy is usually measured in two ways: per hour worked or per worker. Both approaches offer different readings and, in fact, their evolution also differs.
"Hours not worked due to temporary incapacity are currently at historical highs."
While productivity per hour worked has shown a clear upward trend in the last three years—surpassing pre-pandemic levels—productivity per full-time worker has not kept pace. This indicator has approached pre-COVID levels, but has not yet surpassed them.
The reason? Absenteeism. Hours not worked have increased significantly. In fact, at this moment, hours not worked due to temporary disability are at historical records and represent 5.8% of the total agreed effective hours.
The Cambra warns that this is an upward trend since 2013, which has intensified in recent years, both in Spain and in Catalonia, which register the highest rates in Europe. However, they do not dare to decipher the reasons for this absenteeism —in the form of temporary disability—. The entity's economists avoid attributing it "solely to a cyclical factor" and point out that there are surely deeper causes, of a social and cultural nature, that will be essential to analyze and work on so that the improvement in productivity does not slow down before consolidating.