Demographics matter... and make a metropolis

(General Coordinator of the Barcelona Metropolitan Strategic Plan (PEMB))

29 january of 2024 at 01:24h

In 2023, in its postponements, it provided us with two significant demographic data points. In early December, the Institut d'Estadística de Catalunya (Idescat) reported that the population of Catalonia had exceeded eight million inhabitants. A figure that a few years ago was considered to be reached in 2030.

As is known, migratory growth is currently the only factor in the increase of the Catalan population, since more deaths than births have been registered annually in our country since 2018. Despite the distortion of 2020 with the pandemic, therefore, immigration continues at an intense pace, which has meant that, in the period 2018-2023, 34 of the 36 municipalities in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area (AMB) have gained population, although logically at different rates and intensities: from 0.02% in Cerdanyola del Vallès to 17.06% in Sant Just Desvern.

In this regard, shortly before the end of the year, Idescat itself revealed that Badalona had surpassed Terrassa as the third most populated Catalan city, in a struggle that in recent years had been resolved in favor of the Vallès city, but with tiny differences. Again, the arrival of population from abroad has been the key element, given that in Badalona it has grown by 23.79% between 2018 and 2021 (latest data available in the continuous register), while in Terrassa it has done so by 15.65%.

Even so, the highest percentages of demographic growth in the period considered are found in small municipalities beyond the AMB, but in territory still considered metropolitan, such as Solivella (23.43%), Olivella, Montseny and Olesa de Rosanes (all three around 18%). And the same happens with the population of foreign origin which, for example, has doubled in just three years in Montclar or Villalba Sasserra.

Be that as it may, today, among the eleven cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants existing in Catalonia we find Barcelona, three more cities from the AMB (L'Hospitalet, Badalona and Santa Coloma de Gramenet), three cities from the rest of the metropolitan territory (Vallès, Sabadell and Mataró), the rest of the provincial capitals (Lleida, Tarragona and Girona) and Reus.

Barcelona, logically, with 1,660,122 inhabitants, stands out widely over the rest. In fact, the sum of the population of the ten aforementioned cities only exceeds that of the Catalan capital by just over 27,000 people.

The distribution of the population in the territory is one of the most important aspects that help explain social and economic dynamics and that, at the same time, condition them. It is worth remembering that in 1900 the second most populated city in the province of Barcelona was Manresa. Vilanova i la Geltrú, Vic, Igualada and Vilafranca del Penedès were also in the top 10. Of the current Barcelona Metropolitan Area, only Badalona (in fifth place) appeared, in addition to the city of Barcelona.

During all this time, however, the weight of Barcelona city has varied significantly: from concentrating 27% of the total Catalan population in 1900 to the current 21%. If we take into account that in 1991 this percentage was still close to 27%, we find that the most substantial reduction has occurred in the last three decades.

The distribution of the population in the territory is one of the most important aspects that help explain social and economic dynamics and that, at the same time, condition them
Where has the greatest relative population growth occurred in this period? Not in the municipalities of the AMB outside the city of Barcelona, which concentrated 23% of Catalans in 1991 and currently total 21%, butin the municipalities of the metropolitan region, excluding the entire AMB, which did not reach 20% of the total in 1991 and now represent more than 21%.It seems, then, that Badalona's lead over Terrassa does not coincide with the general trend if we take a broader look at the territory.

This population growth in metropolitan territories further away from Barcelona is partly fueled, as we have seen, by immigration, but notably by internal migrations between municipalities. This factor necessarily entails a greater interrelationship between the set of municipalities that make up the Barcelona metropolis, given that there is a greater tendency towards dissociation between places of residence and places of work (more than half of the people who work in these municipalities do so in another municipality in the area), especially, although also with respect to care positions (for family members, for example) or leisure. Daily activities and relationships, in short, tend to be increasingly frequent in this broader metropolitan area.

The weight of Barcelona city has varied significantly: from concentrating 27% of the total Catalan population in 1900 to the current 21%
And this is the factor that makes us at the Barcelona Metropolitan Strategic Plan (PEMB) speak of "the city of 5 million" as our reference territory for thinking about the future of what we call Barcelona. An urban continuum that occupies the coastal front from beyond Garraf to Alt Maresmeas well as the banks of the Besòs and Llobregat rivers and the routes of the main communication arteries articulated with natural and non-urbanized spaces that must be preserved.

The fundamental challenge in this case is to understand the whole beyond the various administrative limits that fragment it and to have common goals, adequate instruments to act on this scale, and a strong will for cooperation among all actors (public, private, citizens...) to face shared challenges. This is the spirit of the Metropolitan Commitment 2030, which was unanimously approved by the General Council of the PEMB last December in Santa Coloma de Gramenet.